2-Day Forecast – Gainsco Auto Insurance Indy 300

Well, it’s forecast time. I’ve got bad news.

Here’s the deal. The models have been creating a bullseye of precipitation right over southern Florida for the past two days. In yesterday’s update, it had drifted to the west a bit. It’s largely related to the stability of the atmosphere in the region. Yesterday, it had looked like the stability had increased, but it again has become increasingly unstable, looking more like the forecast two days ago versus today. This instability is not only playing havok with precip forecasts, but also winds and temperatures.

The hope is that it holds off. The North American Model, which can, theoretically, better resolve rainfall as compared to the Global Forecast System model. That said, many would still say, even 48 hours out, that the GFS is more reliable. I could give you all sorts of discussion on this subject, including arguing against the NAM’s inferiority, but you people would be REALLY bored. Probably more so than you already are.

Thus, the official iiMy forecast!

  • Approx. Scheduled Green Flag: 8:00 EDT
  • Temperature: 72°F
  • Dew Point: 66°F
  • Relative Humidity: 81%
  • Winds: Easterly (from the East) at 8 mph
  • Chance of Rain: 40%
  • Will we race? Yes, but a delay or shortened race is possible at this point.

The commenter who watches my cats is more than welcome to throw his opinions in here. He’s a lot smarter than me.

3 Responses to “2-Day Forecast – Gainsco Auto Insurance Indy 300”

  1. metrta (aka the cat guy) Says:

    I agree with those precipitation chances. The rain that does occur will likely be light and patchy (non-convective), so its going to be hit and miss. Precipitation chances should also decrease slightly after nightfall, so if the race gets started, it has a good chance of running the full distance. In case of a delay, Sunday looks a little better, but a slight chance of showers will still exist.

    P.S. I’m the meteorologist…Will is the atmospheric scientist 😉

  2. Kaboom Says:

    Look: This race isn’t going to finish on time whether because of drizzle or because of two dozen black-flagged 106mph’ers. But no way it gets rained out, though. Too much ESPN money involved at this point. They’ll spend $500K on experimental rain cloud seeding on Friday night before they let the money they spent on the Champ Car tv contract last year go to complete waste. That’s a fact, Jack.

  3. John Says:

    Last night, weather.com forcasted 50% chance of rain, scattered showers, while weatherunderground predicted a 40% chance. I checked this morning, and weather.com has lowered it to 40%, and weatherunderground.com has lowered to 30%. Hopefully this is a good sign. I’m not sure if they use the GFS or whatever other technical jargon you were talking about. You should consider meteorology as a side job.